There was a good article in The Guardian recently, where it basically talked about the fact that there was similar mass hysteria around the time of SARS and Swine Flu and ultimately they fizzled out. I’m not saying this will be the case in this instance and there will likely be further fatalities sadly but this could end up killing less people than conventional flu this winter. I can’t help thinking that come Christmas time we’ll all look back on this and wonder what all the fuss was about. Cases hardly rocketing in this country and falling in Italy and China already.
Coronavirus: Worldwide peak will come next winter, scientific model predicts
A model predicting transmission rates suggests the novel coronavirus could fall during the summer before rising again in winter.https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-worldwide-peak-will-come-next-winter-scientific-model-predicts-11954441
That is indeed a plausible scenario. Hopefully, by winter 2020/21 there will be some pharmaceutical treatments available to reduce the efficiency and effects of the Covid-19 virus although an actual vaccine might only arrive towards the end of 2021 or later.
In other news, Dr Jenny Harris, deputy chief medical officer, said today that she expects that thousands of Britons will be infected over the next few weeks:
Dr Jenny Harris wrote:
“We will have significant numbers in the way that the country is not used to.
We will see many thousands of people infected by coronavirus, that’s what we’re seeing in other countries”.
France and Germany are also roughly where the USA is right now although their social insurance health systems are likely to be able to better cope than the USA’s fragmented private insurance healthcare system. It is also possible that within a fortnight, the UK will be where Italy is right now with similar restrictions being applied.
The British government is certainly planning for such a scenario because a leaked government memo confirmed that the government will be stocking up on body bags ==> https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/10/uk-stockpiling-body-bags-coronavirus-crisis-12375394/
Yesterday’s Radio 4 PM programme started with an interesting discussion on why the government’s currently taking the measures that they are ==> https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000g4zv
A leaked memo and body bags do you know how often that story hits the press last time was due to Brexit according to the politics forum last September ,whilst you may not know that goes on all the time a friend of mine is one of the people in the Cabinet Office ( civil service ) who deals with it along with other emergency planning but body bags tend to be dealt with by each authority . Many body bags are are not reusable that are used for many scenarios, NHS, crimes etc and have to be replaced regularly and ordering extra in case of any supply issue is common sense and they are always kept in surplus level in case of war, mass outbreaks of disease , delays in supply chains etc I mean in the UK last May we had 200 deaths by stabbing alone, that’s 400 body bags used minimum , one at the crime scene then when said body is delivered to the morgue for post mortem another is used later .The media do like to sensationalise and act as though this is a first when it is not.
Local authorties have constant emergency plans for morgues and body bags
For example Merton their leisure Culture and Greenspaces dept deals with storing bodies in an emergency
https://www.merton.gov.uk/assets/Documents/Major Incident Plan 2016.pdf
To provide body holding areas and burial facilities as required
Excess deaths are significant numbers of deaths over a period of time where the death rate exceeds
normal capacities in certification, registration and funerals, and will often be over a wide area and an
extended period of time. The response makes use of business continuity arrangements to provide
additional capacity and may also demand body storage arrangements pending funerals. The KRF
Excess Deaths Plan deals with this contingency.